Did this Coin Metrics analyst discover the important thing to the entire Alameda/ FTX tale? As a result of let’s face it, it doesn’t make sense. Either one of Sam Bankman-Fried’s companies have been extraordinarily winning. FTX used to be the arena’s third-biggest change and rising, why would someone chance killing that golden goose? There will have to were an underlying reason. Did this Coin Metrics analyst discover it within the on-chain knowledge? He would possibly have.

The Head of R&D at Coin Metrics, Lucas Nuzzi, ends his thread with a caution: “Necessary to notice that that is my very own non-public highly-speculative tackle what took place in line with those on-chain artifacts.” The case the Coin Metrics analyst is making rests on cast on-chain knowledge, however the interpretation of what mentioned knowledge way is “highly-speculative.” So, take it with a grain of salt and don’t pass round announcing that is precisely what took place, as it may not be. 

That being mentioned, yikes! 

The Coin Metrics Analyst Makes The Case

Lucas Nuzzi begins with a remark of reality, “I discovered proof that FTX would possibly have equipped a large bailout for Alameda in Q2 which now got here again to hang-out them.” After which, he poses a thriller. “40 days in the past, 173 million FTT tokens value over 4B USD changed into energetic on-chain.” The place did the ones tokens pass? You guessed it, Alameda Analysis. The day used to be September twenty eighth. A record-breaking $8.6B in FTT moved that day.

“That used to be via a long way the most important day by day transfer of FTT within the token’s lifestyles and one of the crucial biggest ERC20 day by day strikes we ever recorded at Coin Metrics,” Nuzzi tweeted. What used to be taking place round Alameda and FTX close to that point? Not anything particular, truly.

  • On August twenty fourth, Sam Trabucco stepped down from the Co-CEO place at Alameda Analysis. “I will be able to keep on as an guide, however another way is not going to proceed to have a powerful day by day presence on the corporate,” Trabucco tweeted.
  • On September twenty seventh, Brett Harrison stepped down from the CEO place at FTX. “Over the following few months I’ll be moving my obligations and shifting into an advisory function on the corporate,” Harrison tweeted.
  • This one is the kicker. On September twenty eighth, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted, “Heads up: rotating a couple of FTX wallets nowadays (most commonly non-circulating); we do that periodically.  Could be a couple of extra coming, gained’t have any impact.”

If all of that is true, that closing SBF tweet will most likely make an look in court docket.

FTTUSD price chart - TradingView

FTT worth chart for 11/09/2022 on FTX | Supply: FTT/USD on TradingView.com

So, What Did Alameda Do With The Cash?

Consider it or now not, the FTT tokens got here at once from the unique ICO good contract. The Coin Metrics analyst “discovered a extraordinary transaction that interacted with a freelance from the FTT ICO. This 2019 contract *mechanically* launched 173 Million FTT from the token’s ICO.” Ordinary, however each organizations are joined on the hip. There would possibly’ve been reputable causes.

Then, issues took a extraordinary flip. “Alameda then despatched that *whole* steadiness to the cope with of the deployer (writer) of the FTT ERC20, which is managed via somebody at FTX.”

WHAT?

 

The Coin Metrics Analyst’s Idea

In keeping with Lucas Nuzzi, Alameda Analysis wasn’t proof against the crypto contagion that plagued the gap in Q2. In reality, the corporate would possibly’ve blown up with 3AC, Voyager, and Celsius. “It ONLY survived as it used to be ready to safe investment from FTX the usage of as “collateral” the 172M FTT that used to be assured to vest 4 months later.” That’s an especially dangerous transfer. It nearly turns out like FTX didn’t have a decision.

They didn’t, as a result of “the FTT ICO contract vests mechanically. Had FTX let Alameda implode in Might, their cave in would have ensured the following liquidation of all FTT tokens vested in September.” If the state of affairs the Coin Metrics analyst poses is actual, SBF and corporate needed to do it. And so they paid a heavy worth for it. “The Alameda bailout most likely put a dent on FTXs steadiness sheet to the purpose the place it used to be now not solvent. This might were high quality if the cost of FTT didn’t cave in and a financial institution run ensued.”

This Is The place CZ And Binance Come In

On this state of affairs, CZ And Binance by some means came upon concerning the deal. And the largest cryptocurrency change via buying and selling quantity had a heavy FTT bag. “As a part of Binance’s go out from FTX fairness closing yr, Binance gained more or less $2.1 billion USD an identical in money (BUSD and FTT),” CZ tweeted when he introduced they have been liquidating their place.

What did this heavy FTT bag imply? The Coin Metrics analyst explains, “As huge holders of FTT, they may get started intentionally tanking that marketplace to drive FTX to stand a liquidity crunch.”

And so they did.

After which, Binance introduced to shop for FTX and relieve them in their issues.

Probably for pennies at the buck.

A grasp stroke via CZ and workforce, if true.

However take into account the Coin Metrics’ analyst caution, “Necessary to notice that that is my very own non-public highly-speculative tackle what took place in line with those on-chain artifacts.” Don’t pass round announcing that is precisely what took place, as it may not be. 

Featured Symbol via Gerd Altmann from Pixabay | Charts via TradingView



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